Tagged: blue jays

Jose Molina Safety Squeeze Fail

Game: Tampa Bay vs. Toronto, 2013/5/7 (box, 6-4 Rays loss)
Situation: Bottom 2, zero out, 0-1 count, runners at 1st/3rd, Tampa Bay down 1-0
Pitcher: J.A. Happ
Batter: Jose Molina
Runner on 3rd: Sean Rodriguez

Leverage index: 2.2
Win probability added: -7.3%

This is pretty clearly a blown call… Bring in the robot umpires?

Adeiny Hechavarria Safety Squeeze

Game: Baltimore at Toronto (box, 6-4 Blue Jays win)
Situation: Bottom 7, one out, 1-0 count, runners at 1st/3rd, game tied 2-2
Pitcher: Miguel Gonzalez
Batter: Adeiny Hechavarria
Runner on 3rd: Yunel Escobar

Leverage index: 3.1
Win probability added: +10.9%

Dandy Squeeze Score (what’s this?): +4 (+1, success; +1, batter reaches safely; +1, tie game; +1, seventh inning or later)

Nate McLouth Safety Squeeze

Game: Baltimore at Toronto, September 3 (box, 4-0 Orioles win)
Situation: Top 2, zero out, 0-0 count, runner at 3rd, game tied 0-0
Pitcher: J.A. Happ
Batter: Nate McLouth
Runner on 3rd: Manny Machado

Leverage index: 1.1
Win probability added: -1.3%

Well Gary, by my count that is the first run the Orioles have scored on a squeeze this year, but they did have a no-go in a safety squeeze situation earlier.

This one looks like McLouth is primarily bunting for a hit, and it just works out that Machado can score on the play. The timing isn’t right for a straight safety squeeze play (note the negative win probability even though successful). With no outs and a runner on third, that run will score accidentally either on a fly or ground out (infield was playing back). Of course, 22% of McLouth’s plate appearances have ended in a strikeout this year, so maybe he should be praised for taking the safe route and putting the ball in play via the bunt.

Dandy Squeeze Score (what’s this?): +2 (+1, success; +1, tie game)

Jeff Mathis Safety Squeeze

Game: Toronto at New York Yankees, August 29 (box, 8-5 Blue Jays win)
Situation: Top 8, one out, 0-0 count, runners at 1st/3rd, Toronto up 5-4
Pitcher: Cody Eppley
Batter: Jeff Mathis
Runner on 3rd: Yunel Escobar

Leverage index: 2.0
Win probability added: +3.8%

Backup catcher alert!

The Jays do everything right here. Good bunt, good break off third. Toronto hasn’t run the most squeeze plays this year, but they’ve been remarkably efficient at it, scoring 6 times and only failing once.

Dandy Squeeze Score (what’s this?): +2 (+1, success; +1, 7th inning or later)

Travis Snider Safety Squeeze

Game: Oakland at Toronto, July 26 (box, 10-4 Blue Jays win)
Situation: Bottom 6, one out, 0-1 count, runners at 2nd/3rd, Toronto down 4-3
Pitcher: Tommy Milone
Batter: Travis Snider
Runner on 3rd: Colby Rasmus

Leverage index: 2.5
Win probability added: +14.2%

Baseball fan bucket list: seen two runs score on a squeeze, check.

Dandy Squeeze Score (what’s this?): +3 (+1, success; +1, batter reaches base; +1, down one run; +1, two runs score)

Rajai Davis Safety Squeeze / Jeff Mathis Safety Squeeze

Game: Toronto at Miami, June 23 (box, 7-1 Blue Jays win)

The Jays turn the trick twice in one game!

Situation: Top 2, one out, 1-1 count, runners at 2nd/3rd, tie game 0-0
Pitcher: Josh Johnson
Batter: Rajai Davis
Runner on 3rd: Edwin Encarnacion

Leverage index: 1.7
Win probability added: +8.3%

Back-to-back walks to start the inning put runners on first and second. The Jays bunted the runners to second and third, bringing Davis to the plate for the squeeze. That’s a lot of bunting in one inning, which I normally disapprove of, but Davis is a fast guy and pretty good bunter (37% career rate on bunting for a hit). Johnson got to the ball quickly, and a good throw might have got the runner at the plate.

Dandy Squeeze Score (what’s this?): +2 (+1, success; +1, tie game)

Situation: Top 9, one out, 3-1 count, runners at 2nd/3rd, Toronto up 2-1
Pitcher: Steve Cishek
Batter: Jeff Mathis
Runner on 3rd: Kelly Johnson

Leverage index: 1.1
Win probability added: +4.7%

Backup catcher alert!

The plate appearance started with runners on first and second. After the first pitch, Cishek balked, sending the runners to second and third. Extreme ground ball pitcher (55% ground ball rate, 29% fly ball rate) plus prime strikeout candidate at the plate (34% this year) equals squeeze situation.

  • Pitch 2 (1-0): Bunted foul down first base line.
  • Pitch 3 (1-1): Pitchout, no action.
  • Pitch 4 (2-1): Pitchout, no action.
  • Pitch 5 (3-1): Mathis put the bunt down. It wasn’t perfect, as it could have been tighter to the line, but it had good weight, dying in the grass. If Cishek fielded it cleanly, he might have had a play at the plate. The Florida announcers seem to indicate that Cishek isn’t a great fielder. The numbers suggest he’s a scratch defender, but small sample caveats apply.

Dandy Squeeze Score (what’s this?): +3 (+1, success; +1, seventh inning or later; +1, ninth inning or later)

Norichika Aoki Safety Squeeze

Game: Toronto at Milwaukee, June 18 (box, 7-6 Brewers win)
Situation: Bottom 2, one out, 1-0 count, runners at 1st/3rd, Milwaukee up 2-1
Pitcher: Henderson Alvarez
Batter: Norichika Aoki
Runner on 3rd: Edwin Maysonet

Leverage index: 1.7
Win probability added: +6.0%

Alvarez was down off the mound like a gazelle, but flat overran the ball. If he picks it up cleanly, Maysonet is probably toast at the plate. So the Brewers get lucky on their 10th squeeze attempt of the season, and Aoki moves to 3-for-3 on squeeze plays this year.

Dandy Squeeze Score (what’s this?): +2 (+1, success; +1, batter reaches base)